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AgAlerts 2004 From Griggs County
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Issue # 9, August 18, 2004
The question of the day is "will this corn make it". Several factors will play a role in answering this question. Joel Ransom, NDSU Extension Cereal Agronomist, has put together some information that addresses this issue.
WILL CORN MATURE IN 2004?
The 2004 growing season will no doubt go down in the record books as one of the coldest in recent years. Due to the unusually cold weather, the development of the 1.85 million acres (also a record) of corn planted this year is way behind average. The question of the day is, "will corn mature this year?" The answer to that question depends on a number of factors such as when and where the crop was planted, the RM of the hybrid used and how many growing degree days we accumulate between now and the first killing frost. Given that the high today (Aug 10th) will probably be about the same as the long-term average low for the month, the prospects of a delayed crop being pushed by warm weather to the finish are rapidly diminishing. So what are the prospects for the current corn crop in ND?
As I reviewed the available literature, it became apparent that given the diversity of environments and hybrids used in the state, developing a broadly applicable prognosis on how corn will finish this season would not be possible. So in this article I will describe some principles and provide some numbers that will hopefully allow you to make a reasonable predication as to how your corn might fair this year.
Corn growth and development can be fairly closely predicted using growing degree day accumulations. A 75 RM hybrid, for example needs about 1900 GDD from planting to reach physiological maturity, while a 95 RM hybrid requires about 2300 GDD. Much of the difference in GDD requirements between early and late maturing hybrids is related to the number of days from planting to silking and less so in the number of days from silking to physiological maturity. Therefore, the silking date is a useful reference point to start from when evaluating how your current crop might finish.
In general terms, corn hybrids adapted to ND require between 900-1100 GDDs from silking to reach physiological maturity (black layer) or about 55 to 60 calendar days. Some data suggest that the number of calendar days and not just GDDs play an important role in correctly predicting grain development (Lauer, 2004), so both GDD and calendar days will be considered here. Table 1 summarizes the GGD accumulations and date of first killing frost (30 degrees or less) for selected locations in the state for the past five years assuming a August 1 silking date (about half of the corn in ND was reported to have silked by 1 August). I should also point out that we have to be a bit caution in using these data to predict how things will happen this year as GDD accumulations this year to date are significantly less than those of the past five year. Having said that, these GDD accumulations for the past five years suggest that only corn that flowered on or before August 1 in locations with GDD like Fargo (i.e. those further south) has a reasonable chance of reaching physiological maturity. Days from August 1 to the first killing frost varied over the past 5 years and locations from about 50 to 65, suggesting a slightly more optimistic scenario for corn development than GDDs alone (i.e. in most locations and season there are at least 55 days from 1 August to the first killing frost).
For corn crops that will not reach physiological maturity based on the analysis described in the previous paragraph, Table 2 summarizes the GDDs needed to reach various stages of kernel development and the associated moisture content of those stages. As an example of how you might use this table, if we use just GDDs, a corn crop that silked on August 1st in Langdon will receive on average (average of the 5 most recent growing season) only 713 GDDs from August 1 until the first killing frost. This is less than the 900 GDDs needed for the crop to reach physiological maturity and just slightly more than the 700 required for the crop to reach the early dent stage. At this stage(early dent), the moisture content in the grain will be about 50% and the yield potential will be reduced by about 40% (Table 2). Hopefully combining the information on the likely number of GDDs (in Table 1) that will accumulate near your farm with the information on the number of GDDs needed for kernels to develop (Table 2) will allow you to make a fairly good prediction of how your crop might finish.
Summary and recommendations:
Due to the unusually cool growing season, corn development in most of the state is far behind the average for this time of the year. Based on the available data it appears probable that fields that were planted early with an adapted hybrid in the southeastern part of the state (that silked on or before August 1) will likely reach physiological maturity, but will have higher than average moisture at harvest. Fields that silked on or before August 1 in the central region of the state and those that silked after 1 August in the southeastern region of the state will probably not reach physiological maturity by the first frost and will probably be difficult to combine without exceptionally favorable field drying conditions. Yield losses will be modest and test weights will be light. Corn in the central and northern regions of the state that silked after August 1st (particularly those that silked after the first week of August) will likely only reach the dent stage of development. Corn in the early dent stage at the time of the first frost will produce light grain that may be difficult to harvest even after several weeks of field drying. If it appears that your corn crop will only make the early dent stage, you should carefully consider some of the alternative uses of corn.
Table 1. Corn growing degree day (GDD) accumulations from August 1st to the first killing frost (30B or less) and date of the first killing frost for selected locations in North Dakota, 1999-2003.
|
Location
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1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
Ave |
|||||
|
GDD |
Frost Date |
GDD |
Frost Date |
GDD |
Frost Date |
GDD |
Frost Date |
GDD |
Frost Date |
GDD |
|
|
Carrington |
702 |
9/30 |
727 |
9/23 |
802 |
9/24 |
829 |
10/2 |
853 |
9/24 |
783 |
|
Fargo |
820 |
10/1 |
936 |
10/4 |
1,000 |
10/5 |
1,019 |
10/9 |
1,124 |
9/30 |
980 |
|
Langdon |
573 |
9/20 |
646 |
9/23 |
824 |
10/5 |
721 |
9/25 |
801 |
9/24 |
713 |
|
Minot |
718 |
9/30 |
735 |
9/23 |
919 |
10/4 |
896 |
9/25 |
871 |
9/19 |
828 |
Table 2. Growing degree or calendar days required from silking for the corn plant to reach the indicated stage, moisture content of the grain and potential yield loss after a killing frost at the indicated growth stage (adapted from Jones and Andersen, 1997; and Lauer, 2004,).
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GGD1 |
Calendar days |
% Grain moisture |
% loss after a killing frost |
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|
Early dent |
700-850 |
38 |
50-55 |
40 |
|
Half milk |
800-1000 |
49 |
35-40 |
12 |
|
Black layer |
900-1100 |
60 |
30-35 |
0 |
1- This range of values applies to hybrids between 75 and 95 RM with the smaller number corresponding to the earliest hybrids and the larger number to later maturing hybrids. Since earlier maturing hybrids tend to be grown in regions of the state where GDDs are accumulated more slowly than regions where later hybrids are grown, the calendar day requirements for early and late hybrids grown in locations of the state where they are adapted are about the same.
Current GDD for Dazey and McHenry weather stations are as follows:
GDD from 5/1-8-17 GDD from 8/1-8-17
Dazey
1256
201
McHenry
1236
202
To look at current GDD at any NDAWN station click on the following: http://www.ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu/corndd-form.html
References
Jones, M. And J. Anderson. 1997. Delayed maturity in 1997 - Potential frost damage and other effects in corn.
http://www.ipm.msu.edu/delayed.htm.Lauer, J. 2004 projected 2004 corn harvest dates for silage and grain.Wisconsin Crop Manager 11(20):132_133. (
http://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu/WCM/2004/W154.htm).Please Contact Our Office For Additional Information
E-mail: john.swenson@ndsu.edu
Go to the 2003 AgAlert Index Page