NEWS for North Dakotans
Agriculture Communication, North Dakota State
University
7 Morrill Hall, Fargo, ND 58105-5665
February 5, 1998
George Flaskerud, Extension Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service
The lentil price is down sharply from a year ago, but could improve during the 1998-99 marketing year. The price at Ray, N. D., on Feb. 2 was $10.50 per hundredweight versus $16.50 a year ago as plentiful supplies dominate the market.
Lentil production increased sharply to about 210 million pounds in 1997, an 85-percent increase over a year ago. Production reached about the level achieved during 1993-95, according to the USA Dry Pea and Lentil Council October bulletin (USADPLC).
Part of the increased production came about from increased acres. Although acreage was up, it reached only 69 percent of the 1994 high. or about the midpoint of the 20-year acreage range, according to USDA data.
Lentil acres in North Dakota jumped from 9,121 acres in 1996 to 17,379 in 1997. But the North Dakota acres were still only 11 percent of the U.S. total and only 2.3 percent of Canadian lentil acres. The North Dakota acres included only those reported to the USDA Farm Service Agency.
Part of the increased production also came from very good yields. The lentil yield at 1,362 pounds per acre was a record, but just above yields in 1995, 1993 and 1991.
Lentil stocks on Oct. 31 were up sharply from a year ago and above the five-year average but below stocks in 1995 and 1994. Lentil stocks were about 192.5 million pounds, according to the USADPLC.
Demand will have to improve considerably for prices to show any significant strength. Shipments from processors for export and domestic use totaled about 139.5 million pounds during the 1996-97 marketing year, which was about 83 percent of the previous marketing year, about 124 percent of the recent low in 1991-92 and about 59 percent of the high in 1993-94. Total use of lentils is expected to up only about 1 percent, according to STAT Publishing (http://www.statpub.com).
Domestic shipments, low last year relative to the five-year average, could increase somewhat. Exports should hold at least steady since there will be less competition in the export market from Canada. Canadian production, at about 835 million pounds, was down about 6 percent from a year ago and down about 12 percent from 1995, according to STAT Publishing.
Demand from the U.S. PL-480 food aid program has been slow for lentils during the first half of the 1997-98 marketing year. As of Jan. 20, actual and potential purchases of lentils totaled 6.44 million pounds, down 81 percent from a year ago.
Lentil prices have varied considerably over the years, according to average grower prices presented in the USADPLC October bulletin. During 1991-92, the monthly average price varied from $14.50 to $17.25. The monthly average price peaked during December-January of 1992-93 at $22.00 and drifted down into August of 1995. Prices then climbed to a high of $20.50 one year later. Since then, prices have drifted lower. Prices in this publication are per hundredweight for lentils delivered to a warehouse.
U.S. and Canadian lentil production is expected to be down in 1998, according to STAT Publishing. As a result, U.S. ending stocks are expected to be 24 percent of total use in 1998-99, versus 38 percent in 1997-98. In Canada, ending stocks are expected to be 16 percent of total use, versus 27 percent this year. If this happens, the lentil price should improve during the 1998-99 marketing year.
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Source: George Flaskerud (701) 231-7377
Editor: Barry Brissman (701) 231-7866