NEWS for North Dakotans
Agriculture Communication, North Dakota State
University
7 Morrill Hall, Fargo, ND 58105-5665
March 12, 1998
George Flaskerud, Extension Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service
The seasonal farm wheat price is expected to average $3.50 during the 1998-99 marketing year according to a USDA report released in February. Steady increases in the average annual price are then projected until $4.45 is the average for 2007-08. These projections are based on normal growing conditions and a number of assumptions which could easily change over the next 10 years. Detailed projections can be found on the Internet at www.mannlib.cornell.edu/data-sets/baseline/94005/.
Seasonal farm barley prices are projected to average $2.35 during 1998-99, and then to increase until $2.80 is reached in 2007-08. The pattern for oats prices indicates smaller price increases are expected over the next 10 years. The seasonal average farm oats price starts out at $1.60 and ends up at $1.85.
For corn, the seasonal farm price is projected to average $2.60 during 1998-99. A small decrease is expected the next year followed by steadily rising prices until $3.10 is reached in 2007-08.
The seasonal farm soybean price is projected to average $5.70 during 1998-99 and $5.65 during 1999-00 before moving up. An average price of $6.00 is projected for 2000-01. The average price is then projected to increase until it is $7.25 during 2007-08.
Seasonal average soybean oil prices are expected to stay above 24.3 cents per pound and to reach 27 cents in 2007-08. Soybean meal starts out at a seasonal average price of $182.50 per ton and reaches $236.50 in 2007-08.
Wheat is expected to have the largest increase in harvested acres over the next 10 years, an increase of 6.3 percent, which is followed by barley at 4.7 percent and then corn at 4 percent. Harvest acres of oats are expected to remain steady. Soybean harvested acres are expected to be variable but lower before returning to current levels.
The wheat yield is expected to increase by 6.6 percent over the next 10 years. An increase of 7.5 percent is expected for barley, 4.5 percent for oats. In contrast, an 11.8 percent increase is expected for corn, 11.4 percent for soybeans.
Corn is the clear winner where total use is concerned. Total use of corn is expected to increase by 17.8 percent over the next 10 years. Wheat is next at 14 percent, then soybeans at 12.8 percent, followed by barley at 11.4 percent. Use of oats is expected to remain steady to down slightly.
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Source: George Flaskerud (701) 231-7377
Editor: Barry Brissman (701) 231-7866