NEWS for North Dakotans
Agriculture Communication, North Dakota State
University
7 Morrill Hall, Fargo, ND 58105-5665
April 9, 1998
George Flaskerud, Extension Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service
Low spring wheat acres in the Planting Intentions Report surprised the trade, as did high wheat stocks in the Stocks Report. Both reports were released March 31 by USDA. Unfortunately, the stocks report offset the intentions report, taking away the positive momentum which was starting to build in the market. The situation was much the same for corn. Acres and stocks of soybeans were close to trade expectations.
These reports affected the market negatively, especially the nearest futures prices. Between March 31 and April 6, all futures prices went down: 17 to 20 cents in May futures for spring wheat, corn and soybeans; 20 cents in new crop (November) soybean futures; but down less (about 13 cents) in new crop spring wheat (September) and corn (December) futures.
A catalyst is needed to turn these markets around. Exports could do it for wheat and corn. The market is searching for a price that will allow this to happen. It is less likely that a turnaround will occur for soybeans, given the South American supply. Of course, a weather problem could boost prices for all crops.
For one reason or another, prices should improve into May. It is just too early for prices to reach a seasonal lowso much of the growing season remains. But treat a rally as a window of opportunity for pricing a portion of anticipated production. The trend is down.
Many North Dakota producers obviously feel that profit potential is lacking in spring wheat production. Spring wheat acres in North Dakota will be down 19 percent, down 16 percent at the U.S. level. On the other hand, durum acres will be up 22 percent in North Dakota and up 25 percent in the United States.
Barley acres suffered too. Farmers indicated that they intend to plant 4 percent fewer barley acres in North Dakota and 2 percent fewer in the United States.
Most other crops were up. Planting intentions were up 100 percent for flax, 38 percent for corn, 22 percent for oil sunflowers, 9 percent for non-oil sunflowers, 17 percent for soybeans, and 17 percent for dry edible beans.
At the U.S. level, planting intentions were up 92 percent for flax, 1 percent for corn, 11 percent for oil sunflowers, 2 percent for soybeans, and 5 percent for dry edible beans. Non-oil sunflowers were down 8 percent.
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Source: George Flaskerud (701) 231-7377
Editor: Barry Brissman (701) 231-7866