NEWS for North Dakotans
Agriculture Communication, North Dakota State University
7 Morrill Hall, Fargo, ND 58105-5665

April 23, 1998

The Market Advisor: Large World Durum Crop Possible

George Flaskerud, Extension Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service

A sharp increase is expected in world durum production, according to the April 2 issue of the International Grains Council's Grain Market Report. Production of 34.5 million tons is expected, up from 27.7 million last year and about the same as in 1996. Other sources indicate a smaller world crop potential.

Combined production from the United States, Canada and the European Union could be up by 3.1 million tons (23 percent) if planting intentions and normal yields are achieved, according to the IGC. In the United States, a 25 percent increase in acres and five-year average yields could produce a crop of 3.3 million tons, up from 2.3 million last year. In Canada, a 10 percent increase is expected in acres which with normal yields could result in a crop of 5 million tons versus 4.3 million last year. In the European Union (EU), area is expected to rise by only about 1 percent but yields are expected to rebound, especially in Italy and Spain. A crop of 8.5 million tons is expected versus 7.1 million in 1997.

Unfortunately, Northern Africa, a major importer, is expected to have a much larger crop this year too. Their May-June harvest is expected to produce 4.8 million tons, versus 2 million last year, according to the IGC. However, the North Dakota Wheat Commission puts their crop at 3.4 million tons, or 1.4 million less than the IGC estimate, based on more recent conditions.

World trade could drop considerably in 1998-99, although what happens to trade depends largely on North Africa's outcome. North Africa imported 3.5 million tons in 1997-98 and the IGC indicated that the imports could drop to 2.3 million in 1998-99. The IGC also indicated that imports by the EU could decrease by a half million tons, although quality, as they pointed out, will be a key factor in their level of EU imports. Continued growth is expected by Japan, Chile and Peru. The IGC is projecting a decrease in trade from 7 million tons last year to 5.5 million this year, although many uncertainties remain, especially North African production.

World stocks of durum could sharply increase from current levels. According to the IGC, combined carryover stocks of the United States, Canada and the EU are projected to be only 1.9 million tons for the current marketing year. The IGC projected that those combined stocks could increase by 1-1.5 million tons by the end of the 1998-99 marketing year.

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Source: George Flaskerud (701) 231-7377

Editor: Barry Brissman (701) 231-7866