NEWS for North Dakotans
Agriculture Communication, North Dakota State
University
7 Morrill Hall, Fargo, ND 58105-5665
July 16, 1998
George Flaskerud, Extension Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service
The hard red winter wheat protein content and hard red spring wheat growing conditions point toward protein premiums increasing into fall. The highest premiums are likely to occur during the September-November period.
The average protein content of the 1998 Kansas hard red wheat crop is 11.4 percent (12 percent moisture) according to a Kansas Ag Statistics Report released July 2. This was the average protein content from 4,431 carlot samples, representing 65 counties. Last year's crop averaged 11.8 percent while the 5-year average was 12.2 percent and the 10-year average was 12.4 percent.
The protein content (12 percent moisture) of the North Dakota hard red spring wheat crop was 14.7 percent in 1997 while the 5-year average was 14.2 percent and the 10-year average was 14.6 percent. An average North Dakota spring wheat yield of 30 bushels per harvested acre would suggest a protein content in the neighborhood of 14.4 percent. A 33 bushel yield would suggest 14.2 percent and a 36 bushel yield would suggest 14 percent. These estimates are based on the historical relationship between yields and protein content.
A 30-bushel average yield for North Dakota would indicate a peak in the monthly average protein premium of about 50 cents on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange cash market for 15-percent protein wheat relative to 14 percent, and the peak is likely to occur during September-November. A 33-bushel average would suggest a peak of about 70 cents while a 27bushel average would suggest a peak of about 30 cents. These projections are based on a protein premium average of 30 cents for July and previous peaks in protein premiums. The premium was 30 cents on July 7.
Last year's average wheat yield for North Dakota was 25 bushels. The 5-year average was 29.5 and the 10 year average was 29.6.
The spring wheat crop was rated 67 percent good-excellent as of July 5, compared to 61 percent the previous week and 48 percent a year ago. USDA's Crop Progress/Condition Report indicated that 31 percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop remained to be harvested, compared to 48 percent the previous week and 54 percent a year ago.
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Source: George Flaskerud (701) 231-7377
Editor: Barry Brissman (701) 231-7866