NEWS for North Dakotans
Agriculture Communication, North Dakota State University
7 Morrill Hall, Fargo, ND 58105-5665

February 4, 1999

Population Projections: Some N.D. Counties Will Grow

The latest population projections for North Dakota forecast modest growth 15 years into the next century, but that growth is likely to come in less than one-third of the state's counties. According to the latest Population Bulletin from the State Data Center at North Dakota State University, the state's population (638,244 in 1998) is expected to reach 649,107 by the year 2015.

"These projections are based on county-specific trends in births, deaths and migration that we've monitored from 1990 to 1997," says Richard Rathge, data center director.

A more optimistic scenario based on the migration pattern in the early part of the decade projects North Dakota's population will hit 659,212 by the year 2015.

"The last few years have been unusual in North Dakota with the flooding and the sharp downturn in agriculture. Therefore, some may suggest that the future of the state is better reflected in the population patterns of the first part of the decade. This is why we offer two scenarios for population projections," Rathge explains.

Although the statewide population projections indicate growth, the vast majority of North Dakota counties will continue experiencing population losses. That seeming contradiction is due to the fact that the population base of most counties is quite small, Rathge says. In fact, 27 of the state's 53 counties have fewer than 5,000 residents. Those 27 counties had 81,117 residents in 1997 and accounted for only 13 percent of the state's total population. In contrast, Cass County's 1997 population was 114,580.

In terms of population, the state's largest 13 counties held 73 percent of the total 1997 population. Therefore, the projected statewide growth pattern more accurately reflects the population trends in these 13 counties.

Cass County is expected to have the greatest population gain, growing from 114,580 in 1997 to 132,486 by the year 2015, Rathge says. Following Cass County in the projections is Burleigh County, growing from a population of 66,647 in 1997 to 75,625 by 2015. The projections for Grand Forks County are less optimistic: short-term stability, with a drop from 69,609 in 1997 to 68,859 by 2000, and modest decline for the longer term, to 64,836 by 2015.

It is difficult to predict population changes in sparsely populated counties, Rathge says. But rapid changes in technology offer new opportunities for employment, especially among these counties. He concludes, "Since growth patterns in small counties can be changed dramatically with relatively modest improvements in employment, the future of the state's rural areas may look much different than what is being predicted based on historical trends."

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Source: Richard Rathge (701) 231-8621

Editor: Dean Hulse (701) 231-6136

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