NEWS for North Dakotans
Agriculture Communication, North Dakota State University
7 Morrill Hall, Fargo, ND 58105-5665

April 22, 1999

The Market Advisor: Oilseed Sunflowers Price
Likely to Remain Under Pressure

George Flaskerud, Extension Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service

Any price increase during the April-May time frame has to be used as an opportunity to sell remaining oilseed sunflowers. The outlook is just too bearish.

Oilseed sunflower stocks in the United States are likely to grow from modestly high levels this year to burdensome levels next year under normal growing conditions if acres increase according to planting intentions. In addition, total oilseed stocks at the world level have grown considerably from earlier expectations and are considered to be plentiful this year and next. World vegetable oil stocks are low but are expected to increase in the months ahead, creating an incentive for buyers to wait for even lower prices.

Farmers intend to plant 3.073 million acres of oilseed sunflowers, an increase of 5 percent, according to USDA's Planting Intentions Report of March 31. If farmers harvest 97.7 percent of those acres (1996-98 average percentage), harvested acres would be 3.002 million acres.

The five-year average yield (1994-98) is 1,401 pounds per acre. The yield last year was 1,548 pounds per acre.

Production would be 1.908 million metric tons (mmt) based on the five-year average yield. This production would be down from last year's 2.023 mmt because of the yield difference.

However, the total supply of oilseed sunflowers could increase above last year's 2.056 mmt to 2.069 mmt because of larger carryover stocks. This level of supply could easily accommodate the high level of total use expected during the current marketing year of about 1.9 mmt.

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Source: George Flaskerud (701) 231-7377

Editor: Dean Hulse (701) 231-6136