NEWS for North Dakotans
Agriculture Communication, North Dakota State University
7 Morrill Hall, Fargo, ND 58105-5665
August 26, 1999
George Flaskerud, Extension Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is projecting durum production to be down at the world level--down 21 percent from a year ago. Although USDA is projecting a decrease in world production, its August supply and demand report put expected durum carryover in the United States for 1999-2000 at 77 million bushels, up 40 percent from a year ago.
In effect, do not expect the decreased world production to significantly increase the price. Exports are expected to increase from 33 million to 40 million bushels, but not enough for a price impact when the expected carryover is so large. Price impacts are more likely to materialize from quality factors.
In its article "Durum Wheat Prospects for 1999/2000" at http://www.fas.usda.gov/wap/circular/1999/99-08/wap2.htm , the FAS provides the following production estimates: 114 million bushels in the United States, or 13 percent of the world total; 279 million bushels in the European Union (31 percent); 143 million bushels in Canada (16 percent); 59 million bushels in Russia (7 percent); 4 million bushels in Kazakstan (1 percent); 31 million bushels in India (4 percent); 73 million bushels in Turkey (8 percent); 112 million bushels in Northern Africa (12 percent); and 55 million bushels in Syria (6 percent). World durum production is expected to reach 902 million bushels.
FAS analysts are expecting production declines in the United States, the EU and Canada, as well as in Syria, Turkey, Algeria and Morocco. Weather is seen as the main reason for the decline. In the United States, the durum crop is expected to be down 19 percent from a year ago. Harvested acres at 3.9 million are up 5 percent, but the expected yield--29.2 bushels--is down 23 percent, based on crop conditions as of Aug. 1.
In North Dakota, which is expected to produce about 75 percent of the U.S. total, durum production is expected to decrease 12 percent. Production dropped 53 percent in Arizona and 46 percent in California. These two states are expected to produce about 14 percent of the total.
France's durum production, about 21 percent of the EU crop, should be up about 5 percent even though a lower yield is expected. Overall, durum production in the EU is expected to be down 12 percent from last year, in spite of acres being up 1 percent. The FAS is also projecting decreases for Spain and Italy.
Spain's production is expected to be down about 65 percent due to drought. About 7 percent of the EU crop will be produced in Spain this year. Italy's production (about 54 percent of the EU crop) is expected to be down about 9 percent.
FAS analysts expect Canada's durum production to be down about 36 percent from a year ago. The smaller crop is due mainly to a cut in acres of about 35 percent. A yield near the five-year average is expected. Saskatchewan is expected to produce about 80 percent of the total in Canada.
Russia and Kazakstan are the main producers of durum in the former Soviet Union. FAS analysts are predicting that production will be up about 14 percent in Russia but drop by half in Kazakstan. Because most of this durum is produced by pasta processors, durum exports from this region are unlikely.
Production is expected to be down about 15 percent in India, 17 percent in Turkey and 42 percent in Syria. Both Turkey and Syria were badly hit by drought. FAS analysts say drought also affected durum yields in North Africa. Although Tunisia's production remained virtually unchanged from a year ago, production was down about 23 percent in Algeria and 52 percent in Morocco.
###
Source: George Flaskerud (701) 231-7377
Editor: Dean Hulse (701) 231-6136