NEWS for North Dakotans
Agriculture Communication, North Dakota State University
7 Morrill Hall, Fargo, ND 58105-5665
May 4, 2000
George Flaskerud, Extension Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service
It will be hard to get bullish on durum unless there is a weather problem. A big increase in Canadian durum acreage is expected, according to a survey by Statistics Canada released in mid April. The survey indicated a 38.5-percent increase. On March 30, the International Grains Council (IGC) estimated that with a 37-percent increase in acreage, durum production in Canada would increase by about 26 percent with a normal yield. The Canadian yield last year was much above normal.
Durum acreage is expected to increase by about 3 percent in the European Union (EU), according to the IGC. That additional acreage could result in an 8-percent increase in production with normal yields; the yield last year was somewhat below normal. However, the IGC pointed out that drought in southern regions could lower potential this year.
USDA's March 31 planting intentions report indicated that U.S. durum producers may plant 3.61 million acres this year. If so, normal yields could result in a U.S. durum crop at least 7 percent larger than last year's.
The increased production in the three major countries is not likely to be offset by demand, although import demand is likely to remain strong in North Africa due to drought damage for the second consecutive year. Overall, the IGC is projecting about a 3-percent increase in world trade.
These projections indicate that combined carryover stocks for the United States, Canada and the EU could increase by about 10 percent. Most of that increase is likely to occur in the United States and Canada.
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Source: George Flaskerud (701) 231-7377
Editor: Dean Hulse (701) 231-6136