NEWS for North Dakotans
Agriculture Communication, North Dakota State University
7 Morrill Hall, Fargo, ND 58105-5665
May 18, 2000
George Flaskerud, Extension Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service
USDA analysts are predicting a higher overall wheat price but lower prices for corn and soybeans for the 2000-2001 marketing year, which begins June 1 for wheat and Sept. 1 for corn and soybeans. These projections are included in USDA's latest Supply and Demand report.
The outlook for wheat is a smaller crop, increased use and lower ending stocks. The decrease in production is projected largely because of reduced harvested acres. Wheat for food is projected to be up, but wheat feeding is projected to be down. Fortunately, USDA is looking for increased exports, although an increase of only 50 million bushels is projected.
USDA is projecting spring wheat and durum production combined at 590 million bushels, up 8 percent. Hard red winter wheat is projected at 976 million bushels, down 7 percent. Soft red winter wheat is expected to total 445 million bushels, down 2 percent. A white winter wheat crop of 228 million bushels is projected, up 19 percent.
World wheat production and stocks are projected to decline during the 2000-2001 marketing year. A world wheat crop of 580 million tons is projected, down about 7 million tons, or 1.2 percent. Ending stocks are projected to drop from 126 million tons to 109 million tons. Prices increases will be limited, however, by large supplies in major exporting countries.
Two consecutive years of drought in North Africa are expected to reduce this region's wheat production, which should help support durum prices. China's production is projected to be down 8 million tons from last year's 115 million tons, due primarily to a change in government policies. Production is projected to be down a combined 8 million tons in Canada, Kazakstan and Australia. In contrast, production in the European Union is projected up 6 percent. Eastern Europe, Russia and Turkey are expected to have increased production too.
The outlook for corn is a larger crop, increased use and increased ending stocks. The increase in production reflects an increase in planted acres and higher yields. All areas of corn use are projected to be up--feed use; food, seed and industrial use, as well as exports.
The outlook for soybeans is a much larger crop, increased use, and sharply higher ending stocks. Production is projected to be up 12 percent due to an increase in planted acres and a whopping 40-bushel-per harvested-acre yield. The yield last year was 36.5 bushels per acre. With plentiful supplies, across the board increases are projected for crush, seed, exports and residual use.
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Source: George Flaskerud (701) 231-7377
Editor: Dean Hulse (701) 231-6136