NEWS for North Dakotans
Agriculture Communication, North Dakota State University
7 Morrill Hall, Fargo, ND 58105-5665
October 5, 2000
George Flaskerud, Extension Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service
Smaller-than-expected wheat and corn stocks and the possibility of smaller-than-expected corn and soybean crops may give us better-than-expected markets in the months ahead. As a result, a gradual improvement in the prices of most crops should be expected following corn and oilseed harvests. In addition, dry winter wheat growing conditions may create a volatile wheat market.
This means that loan deficiency payments should be captured for corn and oilseeds as soon as possible. Store as much of these crops as possible on the farm. In the case of wheat, be prepared to make sales on a stronger basis and futures price. Selling opportunities for wheat frequently occur in the next month or two.
All wheat stocks were down 3 percent from a year ago, corn stocks were down 4 percent and soybean stocks were down 17 percent, according to a Stocks Report released by USDA on Sept. 29. A Small Grains Summary Report was also released.
The size of the 2000 wheat crop was reduced by 63 million bushels. The oat crop was also reduced (by 3 million bushels) but the barley crop was increased (by 10 million bushels). Carryover stocks of corn were 54 million bushels less than projected in the September Supply and Demand Report. In contrast, carryover stocks of soybeans were 23 million bushels more than projected.
The Supply and Demand Report by USDA on Oct. 12 will shed more light on the size of the 2000 corn and soybean crops. Downward revisions in the production of these two crops are expected by the trade, so they are already reflected in the futures market. The report will determine if the trade has been right.
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Source: George Flaskerud, (701) 231-7377
Editor: Tom Jirik, (701) 231-9629