February 8, 2001

Market Advisor: Wheat and Corn Exports Need to Improve

George Flaskerud, Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service

The pace of exports was lagging year-ago levels for all wheat and corn as of Jan. 25, but was ahead for soybeans. The pace of exports is total commitment as a percent of total exports. Export commitments is actual exports plus unshipped sales. Total exports were projected by USDA in the Jan. 11 supply and demand report. The export performance information can be found at http://www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/weekpi.htm.

The pace of exports has implications for marketing. I have reduced my price objectives because exports are slower than expected. I would now target Minneapolis nearby spring wheat futures prices of $3.40-$3.55 for completing sales of old crop wheat. For old crop corn, I would target Chicago futures prices of $2.30-$2.49. For old crop soybeans, the pace may not be good enough to offset the anticipated good South American crop, so I would target Chicago futures prices of $5-$5.25. On Feb. 5, March futures closed at $3.20 for spring wheat, $2.12 for corn and $4.62 for soybeans.

The pace of all wheat exports is not keeping up with the pace of the last four years. The pace was at 68 percent for the current marketing year while it was at 81 percent last year, 83 percent two years ago, 85 percent three years ago and 84 percent four years ago.

Winter wheat exports are performing the worst. Hard red winter wheat export commitments were at 85 percent while USDA is projecting that exports will be 91 percent of a year ago. Soft red winter was at 105 percent versus USDA’s 112 percent.

Spring wheat and durum export commitments are ahead of a year ago, but lagging USDA’s projections. Hard red spring was at 103 percent versus USDA’s 107 percent. Durum was at 111 percent versus USDA’s 114 percent.

White wheat is doing the best of all the classes of wheat. Commitments were 134 percent of a year ago while USDA is projecting 125 percent.

For corn, the pace is also below last year. The pace was at 47 percent for the current marketing year while it was at 58 percent last year, 54 percent two years ago, 59 percent three years ago and 66 percent four years ago.

The soybean export pace this year is ahead of the last four years. The pace was at 77 percent for the current marketing year while it was at 64 percent last year, 69 percent two years ago, 80 percent three years ago and 74 percent four years ago.

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Source: George Flaskerud, (701) 231-7377, gflasker@ndsuext.nodak.edu
Editor: Tom Jirik, (701) 231-9629, tjirik@ndsuext.nodak.edu