March 22, 2001

Market Advisor: All Eyes Are on the Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop

by George Flaskerud, Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service

Development of the hard red winter wheat (HRW) crop is crucial to wheat prices in the coming months. The first comprehensive USDA report on winter wheat crop conditions is scheduled for April 2. Meanwhile, some state reports can give us clues of what to expect. Crop progress reports can be found at http://www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/staterpt.htm.

The all-important Kansas crop was rated 33 percent good or excellent as of March 18. A year earlier the rating was 42 percent. In Oklahoma, conditions are worse. Only 1 percent was rated excellent and 21 percent good. In Texas, 34 percent was rated good or excellent.

Three of the lowest HRW yields in the last 10 years occurred in 2000, 1996 and 1995. For all winter wheat, 60 percent was rated good or excellent on April 2, 2000. A good or excellent rating of 27 percent was scored on April 7, 1996 and 69 percent on April 9, 1995.

In 2000, about 77 percent of the HRW crop was harvested and the yield per harvested acre was 35.8 bushels. In 1996, about 73 percent was harvested and the yield was 29.5 bushels. In 1995, about 82 percent was harvested and the yield was 29.8 bushels.

A mediocre HRW crop without increased spring wheat acres could lead to a significant drop in wheat stocks. It will likely take more than HRW crop problems, however, to reduce the wheat stocks/use ratio to its 1995-96 level.

Continued mediocre progress of the HRW crop should lead to price increases in April to attract more acres of spring wheat into production. Current prices are not conducive to increased spring wheat acres (spring wheat and durum combined). Minneapolis spring wheat September futures closed at $3.34 on March 19.

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Source: George Flaskerud, (701) 231-7377, gflasker@ndsuext.nodak.edu
Editor: Tom Jirik, (701) 231-9629, tjirik@ndsuext.nodak.edu