September 20, 2001

Market Advisor: Quality Up and Stocks Down for Spring Wheat and Durum

By George Flaskerud, Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service

Preliminary data indicate that the quality of the hard red spring wheat and durum wheat crops are at least as good as a year ago on average. However, ending stocks are projected to tighten, especially in the case of durum. USDA released the latest supply and demand numbers on Sept. 14, and U.S. Wheat Associates released the latest quality information on Sept. 18.

USDA increased hard red spring wheat production by 13 million bushels from August to 480 million bushels, which is down 19 million from a year ago. Domestic use of hard red spring wheat was reduced by almost 11 million bushels from a year ago while exports were increased by 5 million bushels. Ending stocks were decreased from 210 million bushels to 184 million.

The average grade of the hard red spring wheat crop is 1 Dark Northern Spring (DNS) and the average falling number is high at 410, according to the U.S. Wheat Associates report. The average test weight is 59.9 pounds per bushel versus 60.4 a year ago and the five-year average of 60. Average protein is 14.4 percent, which is the same as last year but higher than the five-year average of 14 percent. This preliminary data represents about 95 percent of the crop, according to the report.

USDA reduced durum production by 5 million bushels from August to 87 million, which is 23 million lower than a year ago. This production is based on a yield of 29.1 bushels per acre. About 1 million bushels were added to domestic use, but exports were reduced by 10 million. The net effect was for a reduction in ending stocks from 45.2 million bushels to 25.1 million.

The U.S. Wheat Associates report shows an average durum crop grade of 3 Hard Amber Durum (HAD) on the 77 percent of samples expected, which is the same as a year ago. The average test weight is 58.9 pounds per bushel, about the same as last year. Other averages to date include protein at 14.4 percent (14.3 percent last year), falling numbers at 418 (216 last year), foreign material at 0.2 percent (0.3 percent last year), damage at 3.2 percent (4.7 percent last year), shrunken and broken at 1.9 percent (1.8 percent last year), and total defects at 5.3 percent (6.8 percent last year). Some of the data for last year was taken from the 2000 Regional Quality Report for North Dakota and Montana.

For all wheat, production was increased by 6 million bushels from August and total use was reduced by 10 million, resulting in ending stocks increasing by 16 million bushels. The stocks-to-use ratio now stands at 27.2 percent versus 26.4 percent a month ago and 36.5 for last year. A seasonal average farm price of $2.70-$3.10 is projected, up from last year’s $2.62.

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Source: George Flaskerud, (701) 231-7377, gflasker@ndsuext.nodak.edu
Editor: Tom Jirik, (701) 231-9629, tjirik@ndsuext.nodak.edu