November 29, 2001

Market Advisor: Exports Lagging for Wheat and Corn But Advanced for Soybeans

By George Flaskerud, Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service

The pace of exports was lagging year ago levels for all wheat and corn as of Nov. 15, but was ahead for soybeans. The pace of exports is total commitment as a percent of total exports. Export commitments are actual exports plus unshipped sales. Total exports were projected by USDA in the Nov. 9 supply and demand report. The export performance information can be found at http://www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/weekpi.htm .

The pace of exports has implications for marketing. Getting up to two-thirds of the wheat sold on a minimum price contract by mid December may be warranted since an accelerated export pace does not appear imminent. For corn, however, there may be hope for improved exports based on USDA’s projection that exports by China and Argentina will decline. Consider selling two-thirds by the end of January on a futures fixed contract. Take advantage of the higher prices that may accompany the strong export pace in soybeans and plan on selling nearly all by the end of January on a minimum price contract.

For wheat, the pace of exports is not keeping up with the pace of the last four years. The pace was at 55 percent for the current marketing year while it was at 63 percent last year, 64 percent two years ago, 67 percent three years ago and 69 percent four years ago.

Spring wheat and durum exports are on target relative to a year ago. Hard red spring was at 56 percent both this year and last. Durum was at 62 percent this year and 65 percent last.

Soft red winter wheat exports are performing the best with a pace that was at 67 percent versus 58 percent a year ago. In contrast, Hard red winter wheat and white wheat exports are performing the worst. The pace for hard red winter was at 49 percent while it was at 54 percent a year ago. The pace for white was at 48 percent versus 58 percent last year.

For corn, the pace is also below last year. The pace was at 31 percent for the current marketing year while it was at 35 percent last year, 41 percent two years ago, 37 percent three years ago and 43 percent four years ago.

The soybean export pace this year is well ahead of the last four years. The pace was at 59 percent for the current marketing year while it was at 44 percent last year, 46 percent two years ago, 50 percent three years ago and 62 percent four years ago.

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Source: George Flaskerud, (701) 231-7377, gflasker@ndsuext.nodak.edu
Editor: Tom Jirik, (701) 231-9629, tjirik@ndsuext.nodak.edu