November 29, 2001

Long Range Forecasts Not Reliable

Long range weather forecasts, including those in the venerable Old Farmer’s Almanac, are not reliable, according to a North Dakota State University climatologist.

John Enz, agricultural climatologist in the NDSU soil sciences department, says, "History shows that long range forecasts have little or no credibility, which is obvious because they vary so widely."

For the coming winter, Enz says that contrary to some recent years when El Nino or La Nina events have been heavily reported in the national news, this year a "La Nada," which indicates neither condition, will apparently continue through the winter.

"This condition is said to favor normal winters in the northern Great Plains," he says. "Beyond that, I can make no predictions."

And, says Enz, the Old Farmer’s Almanac will not help predict the winter, or weather for any other period.

"In our study of the 1996-97 and 1997-98 winters, the almanac failed to predict almost any facet of the weather accurately. Seriously," he says," are one-line predictions for six- to 10-day periods over a seven-state area actually valuable? If you must buy a copy enjoy the articles and pay little attention to the forecasts."

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Source: John Enz, (701) 231-8576, john.enz@ndsu.nodak.edu
Editor: Gary Moran, (701) 231-7865, gmoran@ndsuext.nodak.edu