April 4, 2002

Market Advisor: Intended Acres Down for Spring Wheat, Durum, Soybeans and Sunflowers

By George Flaskerud, Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service

U.S. producers intend to plant fewer acres of spring wheat, durum, soybeans and sunflowers, according to the Planting Intentions Report released by USDA on March 28. Increases are expected for corn, barley, oats, dry edible beans, canola, and sugarbeets. In North Dakota, decreases are expected for spring wheat, durum and nonoil sunflowers, and increases are expected for soybeans, canola, oil sunflowers, corn, oats, dry edible beans and sugarbeets.

The grain stocks report, which was also released on March 28, indicated more wheat (41 million bushels) and corn (66 million bushels) stocks than the trade expected, on average, but soybeans were close to expectations. All stocks except those for grain sorghum were down relative to a year ago: all wheat was down 10 percent, durum was down 29 percent, corn was down 4 percent, soybeans was down 5 percent, barley was down 13 percent and oats was down 16 percent.

Seasonal price patterns tend to suggest stronger prices for all crops into May, on average. Because of dryness in the Southern Plains, wheat may have the most potential. Acres and stocks suggest that oilseeds may also have potential while feed grains may have the most risk.

Other spring wheat (mostly hard red spring) acres are expected to be down 3 percent in the United States and down 10 percent in North Dakota. On the other hand, significant increases are expected in Montana (8 percent) and South Dakota (6 percent).

Durum acres are expected to be down 2 percent in the United States and down 5 percent in North Dakota. The only other state with significant spring planted durum is Montana and acres there are expected to be up 4 percent.

Soybean acres are expected to be down 2 percent in the United States but up sharply in North Dakota (450,000 acres). North Dakota now ranks eleventh among states in acres planted to soybeans.

Canola is expected to show gains in planted acres, up 20,000 or 2 percent in North Dakota and up 35,000 or 44 percent in Minnesota. Acres in other states are expected to remain steady.

Sunflower acres in the United States are expected to drop 2 percent for the oils and 23 percent for the nonoils. In North Dakota, acres are expected to be up 15 percent for the oils but down 27 percent for the nonoils.

Barley acres in the United States are expected to increase 2 percent but hold steady in North Dakota. For other feed grains, both U.S. and North Dakota planting intentions are up. Corn acres are expected to be up 4 percent in the United States and up 36 percent in North Dakota. Oats acres harvested are expected to be up 33 percent in the United States and up 79 percent in North Dakota.

Dry edible bean acres are expected to be up 336,600 or 24 percent in the United States and up 160,000 or 36 percent in North Dakota. Sugarbeet acres are expected to be up 3 percent in the United States and up 2 percent in North Dakota.

Biotech soybeans are expected to reach 74 percent of all U.S. soybeans planted versus 68 percent last year. For corn, 32 percent will be planted to biotech varieties versus 26 percent last year.

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Source: George Flaskerud, (701) 231-7377, gflasker@ndsuext.nodak.edu
Editor: Tom Jirik, (701) 231-9629, tjirik@ndsuext.nodak.edu