May 30, 2002

Market Advisor: Imports Maintain Barley and Oats Stocks in 2002-2003

By George Flaskerud, Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service

Lower barley and oats prices were projected for 2002-03 by USDA in the Supply and Demand report released May 10. Using mid-range projections, a seasonal average farm price of $2.15 was projected for barley versus $2.23 this past year. For oats, $1.10 was projected versus $1.55 this past year.

Barley production is expected to increase by 3 percent due primarily to higher yields. Planted and harvested acres were projected to increase very little. A trend yield of 62.1 bushels per acre was projected versus 58.2 this past year.

Imports of barley are expected to increase by 7 million bushels to 30 million. Almost all of the imports for the 2001-02 marketing year ending May 31 came from Canada. Ninety-seven percent of the imported barley during June-February was malting quality.

The barley supply will be up from a year ago but by less than the increase in production and imports. Beginning stocks are expected to be down 22 million bushels.

Total use is expected to show a modest increase. Feed use is expected to increase by 15 million bushels but exports are expected to decrease by 3 million. Consequently, ending stocks are expected to be almost unchanged.

For oats, planted and harvested acres are both expected to increase whereas yields are expected to remain steady. As a result, production is expected to increase by 38 million bushels to 155 million.

Imports are also expected to increase. During this past year, most came from Canada, Finland and Sweden. During June-February, 72 percent came from Canada.

The net effect for oats is a supply increase of 25 million bushels but an increase in ending stocks of only 6 million bushels. A 20 million bushel increase in feed use less a 1 million bushel decrease in exports will use up most of the supply increase.

###

Source: George Flaskerud, (701) 231-7377, gflasker@ndsuext.nodak.edu
Editor: Tom Jirik, (701) 231-9629, tjirik@ndsuext.nodak.edu