September 5, 2002

Population Projections Show Modest Growth And Graying of North Dakota

New population projections released by the North Dakota State Data Center indicate the state’s population is expected to grow only modestly over the next twenty years. However, the number of elderly will increase dramatically.

According to the latest Population Bulletin, the state’s population is expected to reach 645,325 by 2010 and grow to nearly 651,300 by 2020. The last Census revealed North Dakota’s population was at 642,200 residents in the year 2000. More recent population estimates indicate the population dipped slightly to 634,448 in 2001.

"The modest population increase over then next few decades will result from sustained growth in the state’s biggest cities and an offsetting outmigration of people from the state’s rural counties", said Richard Rathge, director of the North Dakota State Data Center.

The most pronounced change that will occur in the state’s population will be a dramatic increase in elderly. The 2000 Census reported 94,478 residents who were at least 65 years of age or 14.7 percent of the state’s total population. If the population projections hold true, by the year 2010 the proportion of elderly will grow to 17 percent and jump to 23 percent by 2020. "The exploding senior population is something for which North Dakota needs to position itself," said Rathge.

Nearly two-thirds of the state’s 39 rural counties already have an elderly population of over 20 percent and that proportion is expected to surpass 30 percent within 20 years. "The significant rise in seniors will require the need for more effective and efficient service delivery systems, elderly appropriate housing, a more integrated informal care system and a host of other needs. Unfortunately, many of the rural areas are least prepared and equipped to meet these needs, that is why we need to plan ahead" said Rathge.

In contrast, the young adult population is expected to continue its marked decline. Those in the age group from 20 to 34, often referred to as the entry labor pool, has fallen from 27 percent of the state’s total population in 1980 to 24 percent in 1990 and now is at 20 percent according to the 2000 Census. The latest population projections indicate this age group is expected to decline another 10 percent over the next two decades. In the state’s 39 rural counties, the entry labor pool already represents less than 13 percent of the total population in those counties and it is expected to decline an additional 11 percent by 2020.

"The loss of youth and young adults creates numerous problems including a tight labor market, lower births, and the loss of new ideas and vigor for a community. This situation does not have to occur in our state. What we must remember is that population projections are only mathematical calculations that illustrate what the population will be if current trends in births, deaths, and migration continue unaltered. We have the opportunity to change our future if we are bold and visionary enough," Rathge said.

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Source: Richard Rathge, (701) 231-8621, richard_rathge@ndsu.nodak.edu
Editor: Tom Jirik, (701) 231-9629, tjirik@ndsuext.nodak.edu

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