  BeefTalk:
A Bird in the Hand Is Worth Two in the Bush, Maybe
By Kris Ringwall, Extension Beef Specialist,
NDSU Extension Service
Generally, the fall rush to wean calves comes as a result of a good blast
from Mother Nature. This year, however, is different. It is not old man winter
knocking on the door that is driving the calves off the pastures into the sale
barn.
As is normal this time of year, the North Dakota State University Dickinson
Research Extension Center focuses on preconditioning or weaning. When the Center
is short calves, the neighborhood, or at least the region, has plenty of calves
available. This year, the pickings are slim: lots of calves but many are
committed to video sales, upcoming sale lots or are simply already sold.
Most often, short grass and high prices drove the calves to town straight off
the cows. Despite the efforts of managing retained ownership programs and
preconditioning efforts, the old saying "a bird in the hand is worth two in the
bush" seems to be the story this year for cattle producers.
The North Dakota Beef Cattle Improvement Association records show producers
with early-calving herds have worked, processed calves and sent weights in an
average of 15 days sooner than last year. At the same time, this year’s calves
have shown an ability to put on gain that is similar to previous year’s, but
because of age, the calves are lighter.
In 2002, the average daily gain was 2.49 pounds per day, while this year’s
calves are gaining at 2.51 pounds per day. Translated into 205-day weights, the
2002 calves averaged 628 pounds at seven months of age, and the calves processed
so far this year have a projected 627 pound weight at seven months of age. In
essence, two very similar years seem to be stacking up in regards to calf
performance coming through the Cow Herd Appraisal Performance Software (CHAPS)
program administered by the NDBCIA.
For gross dollars, the answer would weigh in on this year’s calves. Last
year’s actual processing weight was 557 pounds, while this year’s calves are
crossing the scale at 521 pounds, 36 pounds lighter than last year. Don’t
forget, the calves are 15 days younger.
I suppose, it is hard to argue against the thought that "a bird in the hand
is worth two in the bush" but forethought, current thought and afterthought
always need to be processed to fully evaluate management decisions.
On a recent sale at Stockmen’s Livestock in Dickinson, N.D., steers weighing
557 pounds or more brought about $110 per hundredweight, while cattle weighing
521 pounds or more brought roughly $115 per hundredweight. In evaluating the
decision to sell two weeks early, forfeiting 36 pounds of calf weight cost the
producer just over $13. In other words, selling calves at the 557 pounds at $110
brought $612, while selling at 521 pounds at $115 resulted in a gross receipt of
$599.
The old term "risk" starts blinking not only on the computer monitor but in
one’s stomach as well. Probably producing a need for an antacid with each blink.
Recently, prices moved up as calves got heavier and gross dollars got bigger.
That’s not usually the case. Normally, as calves get heavier, the market goes
down and any major move in the market eliminates the last two weeks of potential
profit. The conclusion to that story is "a bird in the hand is worth two in the
bush."
Perhaps this is one of the those years where going hunting isn’t such a bad
idea. If you are not feeding cattle, all those pheasants aren’t going to have
much picking at the trough, so you might as well shoot them. Maybe, three birds
in the hand are worth a lot more than a flock on the run.
Your comments are always welcome at
www.BeefTalk.com. For more information,
contact the North Dakota Beef Cattle Improvement Association, 1133 State Avenue,
Dickinson, ND 58601 or go to
www.CHAPS2000.com on the Internet. In
correspondence about this column, refer to BT0166.
###
Source: Kris Ringwall, (701) 483-2427, kringwal@ndsuext.nodak.edu
Editor: Tom Jirik, (701) 231-9629, tjirik@ndsuext.nodak.edu
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Graphic
CHAPS Calf Performance
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2002 2003
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Average daily gain 2.49 lbs. 2.51 lbs.
205 day adjusted weight 628 lbs. 627 lbs.
Actual processing weight 557 lbs. 521 lbs.
Processing age 189 days 174 days
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