Estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau show a slight shift in a two-decade trend of a growing number of elderly in North Dakota.

The number of North Dakota elderly (65 years and over) has been increasing steadily over the past several decades; approximately 18 percent per decade since 1930 on average. Meanwhile, the number of children less than 10 has been declining rapidly since 1960; dropping 14 percent per decade on average. The result, beginning in 1992, the number of elderly persons outnumbered children less than 10 for the first time in North Dakota’s history.

This month’s “Population Bulletin,” published by the North Dakota State Data Center at North Dakota State University, focuses on the July 1, 2002 population estimates released from the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Branch. These current estimates reveal a slight shift in the North Dakota’s established elderly trend. In 2002, persons 65 and older decreased by 0.4 percent from the 2000 Census.

“This modest downward turn is largely a function of outmigration of early retirees and the impact of the Great Depression on births between 1925 and the beginning of World War II,” said Richard Rathge, director of the State Data Center. Persons ages 65 to 79 decreased 2.1 percent. In contrast, persons ages 80 and older actually saw an increase, 4.5 percent. Combining the loss in youth and the gains among older seniors results in a growing proportion of persons 65 and older, an increase of 0.7 percent.

Nationally, North Dakota had the 2nd largest percentage loss in children ages 0 to 9 between 2000 and 2002. According to the 2000 Census, North Dakota had 82,382 children under the age of 10. By July 1, 2002, that number dropped to 75,130, an 8.8 percent decline in two years. Maine had the largest percentage decline of 10.5 percent. “However, a recent upswing in North Dakota births may signal the beginning of a turnaround of this loss of youth,” said Rathge.

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Source: Richard Rathge, (701) 231-8621 Richard.Rathge@ndsu.nodak.edu
Editor: Tom Jirik, (701) 231-9629, tjirik@ndsuext.nodak.edu