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January 6, 2004 Fewer People Living in Poverty in North Dakota Approximately one in nine North Dakotans were living in poverty in 2002, a rate down slightly from one in eight in 1989. This month’s “Population Bulletin,” a monthly publication from the North Dakota State Data Center at North Dakota State University, focuses on poverty estimates released from the Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) program through the U.S. Census Bureau. SAIPE provides annual estimates of the number and percentage of total people and children living in poverty. These estimates are based on a sample of households. The sample sizes for geographic areas in North Dakota are relatively small, which increases the likelihood of error. Therefore, confidence intervals are calculated to account for sampling error. For example, SAIPE estimates indicate that 11.1 percent of North Dakotans were living in poverty in 2002. However, to be 90 percent confident of this percentage, one needs to consider that the poverty level may range from 10.3 percent up to 11.8 percent. “It is very important to pay attention to confidence intervals when using sample data, especially when the sample sizes are small, which typically is the case for most areas in North Dakota,” says Richard Rathge, State Data Center director. “If you are making policy decisions based on the numbers from sample surveys, it is wise to use the confidence interval rather than the single point estimate. “The slight reduction of impoverished persons in North Dakota between 1989 and 2002 reflects low unemployment and relatively steady inflation,” Rathge says. “These positive economic conditions tend to lift the living standards for most residents through increased employment opportunities and higher wages. However, the positive statewide outlook conceals the fact that the state’s reservation areas and many rural areas continue to struggle.” Sioux, Rolette and Benson counties had poverty rates ranging from 20 percent to 40 percent. The percentage of North Dakota children ages 0 to 17 living in poverty was estimated at 13.8 percent in 2002. However, it should be noted that to be 90 percent confident, this percentage may be as low as 12.3 percent or as high as 15.4 percent. ### Source: Richard
Rathge, (701) 231-8621, Richard.Rathge@ndsu.edu
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