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April 7, 2005 Market Advisor: Sunflower and Flax Acres Up Sharply in 2005
North Dakota producers intend to plant a lot more sunflowers and flax, but less barley, corn and soybeans, according to the planting intentions report released by the USDA on March 31. Producers also are expected to plant more wheat, dry edible beans, canola, oats and sugar beets. U.S. planting intentions are similar except for corn acres, which will increase slightly and sugar beet acres, which will decrease several percent. The grain stocks report, also released on March 31, indicated more corn (34 million bushels) than the trade expected, on average, but less soybeans (33 million bushels) and wheat (11 million bushels). Compared with a year ago, soybean stocks are up along with the stocks of corn, sorghum, barley and durum, while the stocks of oats and all wheat are down. On balance, the acres and stocks suggest that crop prices face considerable risk into harvest under normal growing conditions. The implication is that producers should take advantage of the weather rallies we likely are to get to catch up on preharvest sales. When given the opportunity, producers should consider using futures fixed elevator contracts to sell up to the level of production covered by crop revenue insurance. Beyond that, producers should use put options, since production risk is a concern as well as price risk. Other spring wheat (mostly hard red spring) acres are expected to be up, 4 percent nationally and 11 percent in North Dakota. Durum acres also are expected to be up 2 percent in the United States and 6 percent in North Dakota. The increase in North Dakota wheat acres was only a little greater than the amount of prevented-plant wheat acres in 2004. In the United States, soybean acres are expected to be down 2 percent. North Dakota leads the decline with a 13 percent reduction. On the other hand, other oilseeds acres are expected to be up. Flax acres are expected to increase by 76 percent nationally and 74 percent in North Dakota. Canola is expected to be up about 21 percent in both the United States and North Dakota. Sunflower acres in the United States are expected to increase 43 percent for the oils and 66 percent for the nonoils. In North Dakota, acres are expected to be up 39 percent for the oils and 63 percent for the nonoils. Barley acres are expected to drop 12 percent nationally and 25 percent in North Dakota. Oats acres are expected to be up 4 percent in the United States and 8 percent in North Dakota. Corn acres are mixed, up 1 percent nationally, but down 17 percent in North Dakota. The U.S. corn acreage would be the largest since 1985, according to the USDA. Dry edible bean acres are expected to be up 23 percent nationally and up 29 percent in North Dakota. Sugar beet acres are expected to be down 3 percent in the United States and up 1 percent in North Dakota. ### Source: George
Flaskerud, (701) 231-7377, gflasker@ndsuext.nodak.edu |
Market Advisor: |
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North Dakota State University |
