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September 21, 2006

Migration Results in Continued Loss of Income for North Dakota

From 1993 through 2005, people moving to North Dakota brought with them $5.5 billion in taxable income. People moving out of the state took with them $6.5 billion. Thus, since 1993, North Dakota has lost nearly $1 billion in net taxable income as a direct result of migration.

“These findings put an economic cost on migration, something that is easier to quantify than is the loss of human capital,” says Richard Rathge, director of the North Dakota State Data Center at North Dakota State University. “Regardless of how you look at the consequences of migration loss, it is something we need to address.”

This month’s “Economic Briefs,” a monthly data center publication, focuses on the analysis of federal individual income tax returns from the past 13 years. These records reveal that North Dakota has experienced a continued loss of taxable income as a direct result of migration.

As North Dakota residents continue to leave the state, the economic consequences continue to add up. Millions of dollars in consumer spending and tax revenue are lost as a result of migration. From 1993 through 2005, Grand Forks showed the largest loss in taxable income due to migration, with a net outflow of $259.1 million in taxable income. Much of this loss can be attributed to the devastation caused by the 1997 flood and the losses at the Grand Forks Air Force Base after the closing of a missile wing.

Ward County, also home to an air base, had the second largest net outflow, $156 million. Two counties experienced a net increase in taxable income due to migration during the past 13 years. Burleigh County had a net increase of $19 million in taxable income and Bottineau County had a net increase of $6.5 million.

The economic impact of migration can be significant, even in areas that have a net increase in tax filers or net in-migration. During the past 13 years, Cass County, the state’s largest population center, had a net growth of 5,255 tax filers. However, those tax filers leaving the county had higher incomes than those arriving. Therefore, even though Cass County gained tax filers, it lost $59.3 million in taxable income during that period due to migration.

For information on methodology and limitations of these data, along with further discussion and additional tables, visit www.ndsu.nodak.edu/sdc/publications/research.htm#migration to obtain “North Dakota County Migration Flows: 1998-99 to 2000-01,” which is a North Dakota State Data Center report in PDF format.

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Source: Richard Rathge, (701) 231-8621, richard.rathge@ndsu.edu
Editor: Rich Mattern, (701) 231-6136, richard.mattern@ndsu.edu

Economic Briefs page 1
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Economic Briefs - page 2
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