Submitted by: agcomm,  Wed Nov 26 10:13:38 1997


                        November 26, 1997
 
Too Many Farmers Shifting to Minor Crops Could Cause a Price
Wreck 
 
     Many North Dakota farmers--anxious to avoid the perils of
growing wheat and barley in the land of scab--are looking for new
crops to plant next season.  But if too many people shift their
acreage into the same minor crop, the result could be a price
wreck, according to Dwight Aakre, farm management specialist for
the North Dakota State University Extension Service.
     "Last year North Dakota farmers planted about 13 million
acres of wheat, durum and barley.  If they reduce this acreage by
just 10 percent, and put those 1.3 million acres equally into
crops that now rank 16 through 32 in total North Dakota acreage,
the result could be disastrous," says Aakre.  "Each of those 17
crops would increase by 76,000 acres." 
     Buckwheat would leap from about 9,000 acres to 85,000,
kidney beans from 1,500 to 77,500, mustard from 44,000 to 120,000
acres,  field peas from 68,000 to 144,000 acres. 
     Such increases would cause huge market dislocations,
particularly since most of North Dakota's minor crops have U.S.
acreages measuring in the thousands, not millions. 
     "A safer bet," says Aakre, "might be to go for an
alternative major crop such as corn or soybeans.  This year U.S.
farmers planted 80 million acres of corn, 70 million of soybeans,
so even if North Dakota farmers planted huge acreages of those
crops, the effect on the market would be minimal."
     Another possibility, he says, is to grow minor oilseeds such
as flax, and take advantage of the income protection provided by
the marketing loan program.  The loan rate for minor oilseeds is
high enough to provide a reasonable safety net should
overproduction occur. 
     "If North Dakota farmers substantially increase production
of most other minor crops," says Aakre, "the result is likely to
be very depressed prices--which is why growers who plant any of
these other minor crops should be certain to get a contract
before they put any seed in the ground. 
     "When all is considered," adds Aakre, "there is some merit
in staying the course with North Dakota's major crops--and
considering alternative production approaches to lessen the risk
of another production disaster."
                              ###
NDSU Agriculture Communication
Source: Dwight Aakre (701) 231-7378     
Editor: Barry Brissman (701) 231-7866