Submitted by: agcomm,  Thu Dec 18 12:35:24 1997


                        December 18, 1997
 
For Some, Peas Could Substitute for Wheat
 
Graphic accompanies this story in hard copy and is available on
the World Wide Web at
http://www.ext.nodak.edu/extnews/newsrelease/graphics/
 
     Field peas probably won't prove as profitable a substitute
for wheat in '98 as they were in '97.  Even so, some farmers
could find them a better bet than gambling with scab. 
     Greg Endres, cropping systems specialist for the North
Dakota State University Extension Service, points out that field
peas are relatively easy to establish, much easier than
small-seeded alternative crops such as canola.  Also, he says,
there is a long list of elevators in North Dakota that have
expressed interest in marketing field peas.  But selling
high-grade field peas at the best price is not as easy as selling
wheat.
     "Marketing field peas for feed use is not a problem," he
says.  "But human food markets come and go.  Producers need to
contact potential buyers and be ready to take part in contract
opportunities when they arise."
     Unfortunately, field pea prices are down, supplies are up
and strong demand will be required to bring stocks down to a
manageable level by the end of the field pea marketing year on
Aug. 31, according to George Flaskerud, crops economist for the
NDSU Extension Service.  
     "Field pea prices on Dec. 1 at Rugby, N.D., were $2.90 per
bushel for feed pea, $4.70 for edible green pea and $3.80 for
yellow pea, down sharply from a year ago," says Flaskerud. 
"World production was up significantly last year, but shipments
from processors for export and domestic use were only about 52
percent of what they were a year ago. Stocks on Oct. 31 stood at
the highest level in five years."
     Could field peas be a option presuming they would fit into a
farmer's long-range rotation that would pay more than wheat next
year?
     To help farmers decide, Dwight Aakre, farm management
specialist for the NDSU Extension Service, has computed a matrix
of yields and corresponding break-even prices for wheat and field
peas. The matrix is based on the assumption that wheat will sell
for $3.55 and that in the north central region of the state
production costs will be $54 per acre for spring wheat, $62 per
acre for field peas.
     "Under those conditions," says Aakre, "a farmer who thinks
he might be able to raise 31 bushels of wheat per acre next year,
or else 31 bushels of field peas, would need a field pea price of
$3.776 to make as much with the 31-bushel peas as with the
31-bushel wheat." 
     If that farmer anticipated a 20-percent reduction in wheat
yield due to scab 24.8- bushel wheat, in other words he would
need a field pea price of $3.066 to make as much with his
31-bushel peas as with the wheat.  
     If he expected his wheat yield to be reduced only 10
percent, to about 28 bushels per acre, he would need a pea price
of $3.421 per bushel to make as much with 31-bushel peas as with
the wheat.
     According to Endres, data from research extension centers
and testimony from producers suggest that field peas will yield
about 10 percent more than wheat. 
     "The conditions that have produced reduced yields in wheat
due to scab disease may not affect the yield of peas," says
Aakre.  "This disparity in yields would make field peas very
competitive in areas likely to experience scab infestations in
1998." 
     This is certainly true for farmers who manage to raise and
sell food-grade peas, presuming the present prices of $4.70 for
green and $3.80 for yellow hold through next year.  Matters are a
little less certain, however, if feed-grade peas are raised and
sold at the present price of $2.90.  
     But will pea prices go up next year?  
     Flaskerud doubts it.
     "I'm afraid we're not going to see very much change in the
price of field peas," he says.  "We may see a little bit of
strength going into the spring, especially in the food quality
edible green pea, but outside of that I can't foresee much
change.  We've had big crops this past year in Canada and France,
as well as in other countries, so we'll have a higher level of
carryover stocks at the end of this marketing year.  There will
be no need to ration supplies.  I would expect that prices will
be quite stable."
     Flaskerud also expects wheat prices to remain relatively low
if the winter wheat crop comes through as expected.  "Spring
wheat prices do have some potential," he says, "depending on
acres planted in the Upper Great Plains and Canada maybe more
potential than the field peas would."
     Aakre notes several other points that farmers might ponder
when considering whether to go with peas in place of wheat.  
     "Producers have available more risk management tools for
wheat than for field peas, such as multi-peril crop insurance to
assist in the event of a low yield and a marketing loan program
to help work through a low-price scenario. Neither of these tools
is available for peas. 
     "Also," says Aakre, "the weather conditions conducive to
formation of scab are very difficult to predict.  Historically,
North Dakota's climate has been favorable for wheat production.
The current wet cycle will eventually change."                    
                               ###
NDSU Agriculture Communication
Sources: Greg Endres (701) 652-2951 
         George Flaskerud (701) 231-7377
         Dwight Aakre (701) 231-7378
Editor: Barry Brissman (701) 231-7866