Submitted by: agcomm,  Wed Dec 31 10:25:49 1997


The Market Advisor: Field Pea Prices Down From Year Ago
 
George Flaskerud, Extension Crops Economist
NDSU Extension Service
 
     Field pea prices have dropped sharply from a year ago as
plentiful supplies hang over the market. Ray, N.D., prices on
Dec. 1 were $2.90 per bushel for feed pea, $4.70 for edible green
pea and $3.80 for edible yellow pea.
     Field pea production in the United States increased sharply
from a year ago. Green pea production, at 378.1 million pounds,
was about the same as production two years ago, and yellow pea
production, at 76.4 million pounds, was almost as high as the
record production in 1978, according to the USA Dry Pea and
Lentil Council's October bulletin. 
     Part of the increased production came about from increased
acres of both green and yellow peas. Although acres were up,
green pea acres were 90 percent of the 1984 high and yellow pea
acres were 72 percent of the 1978 high. Green pea acres were
similar to those seen in 1995, 1991 and the mid-1980s. Yellow pea
acres have not been this high since 1990, according to USDA data.
     Field pea acres in North Dakota jumped from 20,740 in 1996
to 67,863 in 1997. But the North Dakota acres were still only 24
percent of the U.S. total, and equal to only 3 percent of total
Canadian field pea acres. The North Dakota acres included only
those reported to the USDA Farm Service Agency.
     Part of the increased production in the United States came
from very good yields. The green pea yield, at 2,254 pounds per
acre, was about the same as in 1995 but short of the 1989 record
of 2,429  pounds. The yellow pea yield, at 2,038 pounds, was a
little below the 1995 yield and the record high yield in 1993 of
2,594 pounds.
     Field pea stocks on Oct. 31 in the United States  stood at
the highest level in five years but not much different than in
1995 and 1993, although up sharply from a year ago. Total field
pea stocks were about 318 million pounds, according to the pea
and lentil council. 
     Strong demand will be needed to bring stocks down to a
manageable level by the end of the field pea marketing year on
Aug. 31. Shipments from processors for export and domestic use
totaled about 161.4 million pounds during the 1996-97 marketing
year, which was about 52 percent of demand a year ago, about 81
percent of the recent low in 1990-91 and about 44 percent of the
high in 1989-90. Total use of green pea could be up about 44
percent, according to STAT Publishing (http://www.statpub.com), a
trade-recognized source of information on many specialty crops.
     Domestic shipments will probably not change much from the
last few years. Except for 1993-94, domestic shipments have been
relatively flat during the last 10 years.  
     There will be strong competition in the export market.
Canadian production, at 3.8 billion pounds was up 48 percent from
a year ago and up 21 percent from 1995. Production in France, at
7.1 billion pounds, was up 24 percent from a year ago, according
to STAT Publishing.
     There are some positive market factors. Canada usually has
high quality green peas but not this year. Because of sun tanning
and bleaching, the Canadians have had to blend peas with
purchases from the United States, according to the pea and lentil
council. Also, Australian production of field peas was reduced by
36 percent from a year ago to 659 million pounds, according to
STAT Publishing.
     Demand from the U.S. PL-480 food aid program has been strong
for green peas during the first few months of the 1997-98
marketing year.  As of Nov. 17, actual and potential purchases of
green peas totaled 36.55 million pounds, up 24 percent from a
year ago. Nothing was under tender for yellow peas up to Nov. 17
while last year 14.2 million pounds had been bought or were under
tender.
     Green peas prices have varied seasonally over they years,
according to average grower prices presented in the pea and
lentil council's October bulletin, where prices are per bushel
for green peas delivered to a warehouse. During 1991-92, the
monthly average price varied from $4.62 to $5.04. The monthly
average price peaked in November of the 1992-93 marketing year
and drifted down during the balance of that period. Prices
steadily climbed to a high of $4.95 in August of the 1993-94
marketing year, and continued to climb to a peak during the
March-May period of the 1994-95 marketing year. Prices declined
somewhat into harvest and then rose steadily during the 1995-96
marketing year. Last year the average price went from $6.60 in
October to $8.55 in March, the monthly average high price for the
past six marketing years.
     A contract price of $3.90 per bushel has been the norm at
Minn-Dak Growers since 1991, except for 1995 when it was $3.30,
according to "Historical Contract Prices for Selected North
Dakota Specialty Crops" by Steve Edwardson, director of research
and development and crop management specialist for Minn-Dak
Growers. Contract prices have varied from $3.30 to $6.00 since
1980, and have averaged $4.39. 
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NDSU Agriculture Communication
Source: George Flaskerud (701) 231-7377
Editor: Barry Brissman (701) 231-7866