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Plotting a Course 2006
Short-Term and Long-Term Agricultural Planning Prices For North Dakota

EC-1090 (Revised), January 2006

Ron Haugen, Farm Management Specialist
Tim Petry, Livestock Economist
George Flaskerud, Crop Marketing Specialist
Dwight Aakre, Farm Management Specialist

Click here for an Adobe Acrobat PDF file suitable for printing. (86KB)

Planning for the future can be a very frustrating process, but one that typically pays high dividends. For most farm and ranch managers, developing realistic commodity price expectations is one of the most difficult and complex tasks of the planning process. To ease the burden of forecasting planning prices, the NDSU Extension Service has prepared a summary of projected short- and long-term planning prices.

The estimated short-term planning prices should be used as a guide in setting price expectations for 2006 production. These planning prices can be used for preparing annual enterprise budgets and annual whole-farm cash flow projections.

The short-term planning prices should not be used for planning capital purchases or expansion alternatives that extend beyond the next production year. Unfortunately, the use of short-term planning prices to make long-term decisions is common. This practice is not recommended because current supply/demand conditions rarely continue for long periods of time and are a poor indicator of future trends.

The long-term planning prices are valuable for evaluating alternative plans that affect the farm or ranch business for more than one year. Both individual yearly price forecasts and long-term average prices are presented.

The long-term planning prices were derived from annual average price forecasts made by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI). The U.S. price estimates reported in the 2005 Baseline Briefing Paper, November 2005 were adjusted, using historical relationships (10-year Olympic average), to reflect North Dakota farm gate prices.

Historical prices are reported for reference. This information can be a valuable reminder of past price fluctuations and trends. Prices for 2005 are averages to date.

The historical crop prices were obtained from "North Dakota Agricultural Statistics 2005," North Dakota Agricultural Statistics Service publication No. 74. Historical slaughter steer, slaughter hog and milk prices are from FAPRI. The historical feeder steer and cull cow prices are from Kist Livestock Auction, Mandan, N.D. Historical sheep prices are from the North Dakota Agricultural Statistics Service and Sioux Falls, S.D.



CROPS
Marketing
Year		 Spring
Wheat		 Durum
Wheat		 Oats Feed
Barley		 Malting
Barley		 Oil
Sunflower		 Non-oil
Sunflower
  (bu) (bu) (bu) (bu) (bu) (cwt) (cwt)
2000-01 $2.79 $2.48 $0.86 $1.37 $1.86 $6.06 $11.30
2001-02 $2.76 $2.89 $1.63 $1.47 $2.03 $9.39 $11.70
2002-03 $3.74 $4.01 $1.68 $1.89 $2.92 $11.60 $13.80
2003-04 $3.57 $3.93 $1.33 $1.95 $2.78 $11.30 $15.70
2004-05 $3.36 $3.71 $1.18 $1.46 $2.40 $13.00 $18.50
Historic avg. (2000-2004) $3.24 $3.40 $1.34 $1.63 $2.40 $10.27 $14.20
2005-06 (to date) $3.45 $3.31 $1.25 $1.38 $2.09 $10.64 $16.54
2006-07 short-term $3.50 $3.50 $1.40 $1.65 $2.25 $11.25 $15.00
2007-08 $3.52 $3.87 $1.46 $1.72 $2.34 $11.37 $16.37
2008-09 $3.61 $3.97 $1.50 $1.77 $2.41 $11.47 $16.52
2009-10 $3.69 $4.05 $1.51 $1.79 $2.43 $11.62 $16.73
2010-11 $3.73 $4.10 $1.54 $1.82 $2.48 $11.79 $16.98
2011-12 $3.80 $4.18 $1.56 $1.84 $2.50 $11.94 $17.19
Projected long-term avg. (2007-11) $3.671 $4.042 $1.513 $1.794 $2.435 $11.646 $16.767

1 Spring wheat price is calculated based on the historical relationship:N.D. spring wheat = U.S. wheat x 1.05
2 Durum wheat price is calculated based on the historical relationship:N.D. durum = N.D. spring wheat x 1.10
3 Oats price is calculated based on the historical relationship: N.D. oats = U.S. oats x 0.86
4 Feed barley price is calculated based on the historical relationship:N.D. feed barley = U.S. feed barley x 0.86
5 Malting barley price is calculated based on the historical relationship:N.D. malting barley = N.D. feed barley x 1.36
6 Oil sunflower price is calculated based on the historical relationship:N.D. oil sunflower = U.S. soybean oil (cwt) x 0.48
7 Non-oil sunflower price is calculated based on the historical relationship:N.D. non-oil sunflowe r= N.D. oil sunflower x 1.44
8 Corn price is calculated based on the historical relationship:N.D. corn = U.S. corn x 0.91



CROPS (continued)
Marketing Year Corn Soybeans Canola Flaxseed Winter
Wheat 		Dry
Beans 		Alfalfa
Hay 		Other
Hay		 Potatoes
  (bu) (bu) (cwt) (bu) (bu) (cwt) (ton) (ton) (cwt)
2000-01 $1.65 $4.23 $6.55 $3.31 $2.25 $12.60 $46.00 $31.00 $5.45
2001-02 $1.87 $4.05 $8.80 $4.29 $2.39 $20.40 $50.00 $35.50 $6.00
2002-03 $2.16 $5.32 $10.60 $5.77 $3.54 $14.30 $70.00 $49.00 $6.25
2003-04 $2.37 $6.62 $10.60 $5.88 $3.01 $16.10 $58.00 $41.00 $5.45
2004-05 $1.88 $5.75 $10.17 $8.05 $2.76 $24.80 $63.50 $46.00 $5.80
Historic avg. (2000-2004) $1.99 $5.19 $9.34 $5.46 $2.79 $17.64 $57.50 $40.50 $5.79
2005-06 (to date) $1.71 $5.50 $9.28 $6.16 $2.73 $16.52 $57.02 $38.87 $5.97
2006-07 short-term $1.90 $5.30 $10.00 $5.40 $3.15 $15.50 $55.00 $36.00 $5.80
2007-08 $1.97 $5.45 $10.90 $5.45 $3.18        
2008-09 $2.03 $5.44 $10.99 $5.50 $3.27        
2009-10 $2.07 $5.42 $11.14 $5.57 $3.33        
2010-11 $2.12 $5.41 $11.30 $5.65 $3.37        
2011-12 $2.15 $5.42 $11.44 $5.72 $3.44        
Projected long-term avg. (2007-11) $2.078 $5.439 $11.1510 $5.5811 $3.3212 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

9 Soybean price is calculated based on the historical relationship:N.D. soybean = U.S. soybean x 0.94
10 Canola price is calculated based on the historical relationship:N.D. canola = U.S. soybean oil (cwt) x 0.46
11 Flaxseed price is calculated based on the historical relationship:N.D. flaxseed = U.S. soybean oil (cwt) x 0.23
12 Winter wheat price is calculated based on the historical relationship:N.D. winter wheat = U.S. wheat x 0.95



BEEF
Marketing Year* 400-500 lb. Steers 500-600 lb. Steers 600-700 lb. Steers 700-800 lb. Steers 800-900 lb. Steers 1,100-1,700 lb. Cull Cows 1,100-1,300 lb.
Nebraska Direct
Slaughter Steers
  (cwt) (cwt) (cwt) (cwt) (cwt) (cwt) (cwt)
  Fall Prices Fall Prices Fall Prices Fall Prices Fall Prices Fall Prices Fall Prices
2000-01 $108.70 $99.31 $93.25 $86.08 $82.16 $39.80

$69.65

2001-02 $104.49 $93.37 $88.60 $82.67 $78.40 $42.00 $72.71
2002-03 $95.66 $86.72 $83.06 $78.10 $75.46 $37.00 $67.04
2003-04 $119.53 $109.39 $103.71 $91.78 $86.02 $44.50 $84.69
2004-05 $139.03 $122.38 $112.77 $106.18 $100.08 $50.00 $84.75
Historic avg. (2000-2004) $113.48 $102.23 $96.28 $88.96 $84.42 $42.66 $75.77
2005-06 (to date) $144.92 $130.66 $124.20 $117.00 $115.00 $53.00 $87.00
2006-07 short-term $135.00 $122.00 $114.00 $110.00 $108.00 $51.00 $83.00
2007-08 $125.00 $112.00 $107.00 $102.00 $96.00 $49.00 $80.00
2008-09 $120.00 $110.00 $104.00 $99.00 $94.00 $46.00 $78.00
2009-10 $115.00 $105.00 $99.00 $94.00 $90.00 $44.00 $76.00
2010-11 $110.00 $100.00 $94.00 $90.00 $86.00 $43.00 $74.00
2011-12 $115.00 $105.00 $99.00 $94.00 $90.00 $43.00 $75.00
Projected long-term avg. (2007-11) $117.00 $106.40 $100.60 $95.80 $91.20 $45.00 $76.60

* Fall quarter prices are for the 400-500, 500-600 and 600-700 lb. weights. Spring quarter prices are for the 700-800 and 800-900 lb. weights.
To estimate heifer prices, subtract $7/cwt for 400-500 and 500-600 lb. animals and subtract $4/cwt for 600-700, 700-800 and 800-900 lb. animals.



HOGS
Year 250 lb.
Slaughter Hogs
  (cwt)
2000 $43.20
2001 $44.31
2002 $33.42
2003 $37.95
2004 $51.01
Historic avg. (2000-2004) $41.98
2005 (to date) $48.13
2006 $42.63
2007 $39.14
2008 $40.68
2009 $44.73
2010 $47.14
2011 $45.76
Projected long-term avg. (2007-11) $43.49
FAPRI slaughter hog prices were adjusted downward by $1.50/cwt to reflect N.D. price projections.



SHEEP
Year Slaughter Ewes 105-140 lb.
Slaughter Lambs		 60-90 lb.
Feeder Lambs
  (cwt) (cwt) (cwt)
2000 $31.00 $72.74 $83.78
2001 $29.00 $61.60 $73.01
2002 $24.00 $66.88 $73.43
2003 $30.00 $90.28 $101.61
2004 $37.00 $93.10 $115.16
Historic avg. (2000-2004) $30.20 $76.92 $90.40
2005 (to date) $43.00 $105.06 $133.06
2006 $38.00 $95.00 $120.00
2007 $36.00 $93.00 $115.00
2008 $38.00 $95.00 $120.00
2009 $40.00 $97.00 $124.00
2010 $42.00 $99.00 $126.00
2011 $44.00 $102.00 $130.00
Projected long-term avg. (2007-11) $40.00 $97.20 $123.00



MILK
Year All Milk
  (cwt)
2000 $11.30
2001 $14.20
2002 $11.80
2003 $12.20
2004 $16.30
Historic avg. (2000-2004) $13.16
2005 (to date) $15.44
2006 $13.05
2007 $12.90
2008 $13.19
2009 $13.56
2010 $13.65
2011 $13.58
Projected long-term avg. (2007-11) $13.38
N.D. milk price projections from FAPRI.Subtract $1.50/cwt for Grade B milk.


For more crops marketing information links:
 www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/aginfo/cropmkt/websites/sites.htm

For more livestock marketing information links:
www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/aginfo/lsmkt/web/links.htm  


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For more information on this and other topics, see: www.ag.ndsu.edu

EC-1090 (Revised), January 2006

 

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